Istanbul real estate statistics 2022

At Pera we love stats. Our annual look at Istanbul’s incredible real estate market is back! 2021 saw a barnstorming growth, with 127% price increases. Much was said about the pandemic affect. However in 2022, prices rose again by an incredible 120% overall in Istanbul.

So we ask the same question again: Local investors have been rewarded immensely – what about the international investors?

(TL:DR USD prices rose by an incredible 49%!

Let’s start by taking an overall look at overall growth for real estate prices in Istanbul for all of 2022. Istanbul’s inflation for 2022 was again in the high double digits due to the Lira taking a pounding on foreign exchange markets.

Istanbul price growth in lira for 2022

How does this affect the international investor as a US Dollar index?

Turkish investors were quick to react to exchange rate fluctuations by adjusting pricing accordingly. 2022 saw a construction boom of large new compounds in all parts of Istanbul. However, it was not enough to cope with the huge demand for homes, primarily from Turkish buyers. The cost of construction is priced in USD in Turkey, hence the cost of new homes has risen in line. Naturally resale pricing followed suit.

What about district pricing?

As always, the idiom location, location, location rules the demand for property and hence pricing. City centre pricing was high, and remains high, leading the way in price rises.

This chart represents the majority of the central Istanbul districts where international money has flowed in 2022. All districts have seen incredible dollar indexed growth in 2022.

Last year, Atasehir lead the way, benefitting from the massive anticipation around the inauguration of the new financial district and its metro line. This year, Beyoglu has seen an incredible 209% growth in USD terms.

Beyoglu is home to major touristic landmarks, and regeneration is centred around the Tarlabasi and Piyalepasa neighbourhoods. Other high demand neighbourhoods have also performed well, such as Cihangir and Gumussuyu. Older stock continues to stagnate due to a lack of demand and an urgent need of government intervention for regeneration. Property that is brand new is few and far between, however it is the new property that has caused this huge spike in pricing.

Kagithane saw poor growth in 2021, in 2022 it benefitted from its vicinity to the city centre and the new M7 metro line.  These factors saw Kagithane get a 75.6% average price rise. Kagithane has attracted investors. It seems that the district is on the way to becoming an independent business zone.

Atasehir and Umraniye, two neighbouring districts also saw barnstorming growth of 53% and 65% respectively. Both districts benefit from the huge financial district which is due for inaugaration in 2023, and the operational M5 metro, as well as the new M12 metro which is due in 2024.

Kadikoy also saw a decent 31% in growth. At the start of 2021, Fikirtepe (located in Kadikoy), had a large reserve of stock due to the massive urban transformation of the region (read more about this here). Most of this stock has gone, and Kadikoy now suffers from an undersupply of good quality new stock.

Bakirkoy’s ongoing problem continues – new stock in Bakirkoy is practically non existent, hence Bakirkoy’s primary sales in this district are resales. Majority of the new stock is lined along the Kennedy Avenue, which are prime, sea-front luxury projects.  As a result sales in Bakirkoy is primarily made up of old stock, which does not appreciate as much as new stock. Bakirkoy “only” saw an increase of 30.2%, still great considering.

Sisli again saw incredible growth in the Bomonti neighbourhood, where the majority of skyscrapers reside. This area saw over 60% price rises in USD terms, and as a result pulled up the average for the region.

Besiktas has a familiar story to Bakirkoy but has the potential to turn this around in 2023. Urban regenaration is pushing ahead drastically in the district, demand for small apartments is exceptionally high, and new stock exists in small numbers.

Bahcelievler also has similar issues to Bakirkoy in that the majority of sales are on the not-so-in-demand older pre 1999 stock. Despite this, a return of 60% has been seen.

EyupSultan has an almost identical story to Kagithane. Supply is decent but demand is not always there due to the hilly nature of the neighbourhood. The new city centre M7 metro, and old city T5 tramway has pushed prices up here.

What about the suburbs?

The suburbs of Istanbul have traditionally tailed the traditional central districts. A large number of international buyers seek more space for their money in the dense suburbs of Esenyurt and Basaksehir. Holiday home seekers tend to invest in Beylikduzu or Buyukcekmece.

The pattern of 2021 continued in the suburbs in 2022. All suburban districts kept pace with the exception of Basaksehir. However Basaksehir had already outperformed its peers in 2021, so a “correction” was to be expected.

Expectations for 2023

In 2021, we predicted that growth would continue at the same pace due to the following factors:
-Pre-2003 (non earthquake proof stock) dominates the Istanbul housing stock and must be renewed by law;
-Expansionary credit policy by the government continues to encourage Turks to buy new stock over old;
-A young and growing population influx from Anatolian towns;
-Heavy demand from Turks outside of Istanbul to have an investment apartment in Istanbul;
-A lack of new builds ensures demand heavily outstrips supply.

These are the macro factors, and each district has its own additional internal factors. These factors point to continued price growth until these imbalances are addressed. Heavy demand is difficult to curtail and supply is not meeting this demand. This almost always results in price growth in any asset, and we expect price growth to continue along these lines in 2022.

These macro factors have not changed at all unfortunately, and have only been excarcebated by a higher than expected inflation rate worldwide. High inflation continues to plague the world however Istanbul’s property market continues to outstrip the rate of inflation of Turkey.

High inflation remains the main driver of growth. Construction costs, wage growth, and land prices have all increased in drastic terms for the second year running. The driver of this growth could be put into a university thesis and is beyond the scope of this article.

In 2023, we are not expecting growth at this rate. The exceptionally high prices have become a political hot potato, with each party pledging to control this growth. This is being done through various means and these are expected to temper prices in 2023. Prices will still rise but we don’t expect it to rise at such high rates.